With gains of about 40% in 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) is enjoying a successful start of the year. Therefore, investors are hoping that the crypto can sustain the gains in the coming months.
Despite the optimism, United States adults surveyed in January 2023 are projecting a gloomy future for Bitcoin, predicting that the asset will likely trade at $15,252 in the next sixth months, according to research published on January 24 by Morning Consult.
The adult price projection represents a drop of about 34% from Bitcoin’s value at the time of publishing. Notably, the survey results had a monthly sample size of 4,400 U.S. adults.
From the feedback, it is clear that their confidence in Bitcoin among the respondents is diminishing despite the asset starting the year on a positive note.
Although Bitcoin has gained significantly in 2023, holding above the $23,000 level, the asset is still facing uncertainty. It is worth noting that Bitcoin is operating in almost similar conditions that characterized last year’s bear market.
At the moment, Bitcoin appears to be recovering from the uncertainty of macroeconomic factors, but the short-term projection remains shaky. In this case, despite an improvement in key macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin prospects also depend on the overall health of the economy that’s staring at a possible recession.
Bitcoin’s facing possible reversal
Indeed, Bitcoin price has failed to breach and hold the $24,000 resistance level despite the latest Federal Reserve policy on interest rates. In particular, the Fed raised rates by 0.25% as expected, a factor that was viewed as a possible trigger for a rally among risk assets such as Bitcoin. Notably, Bitcoin reacted positively to test $24,000 briefly.
However, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is facing the risk of invalidation after the latest U.S. unemployment data. Notably, over 500,000 jobs were added in January to beat expectations, with unemployment rates falling to the lowest level in almost six decades.
It is worth noting that the robust payrolls number could shatter traders’ hopes that the Fed would delay rate hikes or consider rate reduction in the coming months if the U.S. employment situation significantly worsened.
At the same time, the jobs data bodes well for the dollar but can potentially trigger a sell-off in risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Furthermore, regulations remain a possible reason for the gloomy Bitcoin projection. It is worth noting that several state agencies, including the White House, have made clear their plans to regulate crypto.
Bitcoin price analysis
The maiden cryptocurrency currently trades at $23,337, representing daily losses of over 1%. On the weekly chart, BTC is up over 1%.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin’s technical analysis is mostly bullish. A summary of the one-day gauges is for the ‘buy’ sentiment at 14, while moving averages recommend ‘strong buy’ at 13. Oscillators remain neutral with a gauge of 9.
In the meantime, the machine learning algorithm at PricePredictions indicates that Bitcoin will likely extend the bullish momentum in the coming weeks to trade at $24,342 on February 28, 2023.