The price of Bitcoin rose more than 6% on Friday morning as bulls battled to break above $30,000. The flagship crypto, battered this week to lows of $25,400 on some exchanges amid the Terra (LUNA) and UST chaos, even came close to breaching resistance at $31,000.
At the time of writing, though, BTC/USD is trading near $30,500. This is after paring some of the gains, but nearly 4% up in the past 24 hours.
Looking at Bitcoin charts and other metrics, what’s the outlook for BTC/USD in the short term? Is there going to be a buying opportunity for those who missed the sub-$30k-$20k level?
Here are some analysts’ projections.
Stocks pushing higher good for Bitcoin short term
Michael van de Poppe says a”good bounce” seen in early trades in US stocks could help BTC push higher. Notably, his remarks are premised on the high correlation between the equities market and Bitcoin.
“Good bounce in the U.S., resulting into #crypto going upwards as well. Could be a decent weekly close. On the $SPX, would like to see it break above 4150 and hold that level.”
Hey, its ‘fear and then capitulation’
Despite this optimism, a look at the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)indicator, suggests the bottom is not yet in. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared this chart, pointing out that the Bitcoin market is now in “fear.” Next is capitulation.
#Bitcoin has officially gone from Greed to Denial, and from Denial to Anxiety. $BTC has now entered Fear, which is followed by Capitulation based on the NUPL indicator. This means that the market bottom is not in yet! pic.twitter.com/0Xqm1L9jbf
— Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) May 13, 2022
‘Dead cat bounce’ and then bottom to $20k?
As for the pseudonymous crypto trader and analyst HornHairs, crypto is not out of the woods yet and could still retest lows in a “dead cat bounce.” He suggests BTC will likely remain hemmed within this week’s range of $25.4k and $36k.
The analyst is convinced bears remain in control until a decent rally helps to reclaim weekly highs in the $48k-$50k region.HornHairs says:
My macro view hinges on the reclaim of the weekly high back above $48.6k-50k. Above that & we’re good. Until then there is a real chance we could chop around & dead cat bounce here for a few weeks into another flush down to $20k for accumulation bottom.
Strong support at $23,960, though
The bounce above $30k comes after BTC/USD sold off to lows of $25,400 and was only 6% from hitting a support level last visited in March 2020. The level was represented by the realized price of $23,960. This level offers very strong support for BTC should prices turn lower, on-chain data platform Glassnode says.
Yesterday, the #Bitcoin market sold off to $25.4k, and within 6% of the Realized Price ($23,960). The realized price represents the average cost basis of all $BTC, and was last visited, only briefly, in March 2020. Historically it has been a strong support for #Bitcoin.
Chart showing previous bear market support levels based on realized price. Source. Glassnode
The path downwards is a likely outcome given crypto has been in a downtrend since BTC hit its peak of $69K. But as the cycles move, more pain might just be what hodlers need to accumulate more sats.