Analytics

Solana Price Analysis – Can SOL Recover To ATH after Network Downtime?

Key highlights:

  • SOL is now down by almost 3% this week as the coin sits near $160
  • The cryptocurrency saw a significant pullback over the past couple of days after a major mainnet restart
  • Against BTC, SOL is attempting to hold support at ₿0.00333 (.236 Fib Retracement)
Solana price$156
Key SOL resistance levels$170, $180, $185, $192, $200
Key SOL support levels$142, $140, $120, $100, $96.35

*Price at the time of publication

The rapid growth of Solana is undoubtedly one of the biggest stories in crypto after the project surged by a whopping 252% over the past month alone.

However, the Solana blockchain experienced some throughput issues over the past couple of days which resulted in the blockchain having to be halted and restarted.

The outage occurred on September 14th, with the Solana Twitter account tweeting the following:

Resource exhaustion in the network is causing a denial of service, engineers are working towards a resolution. Validators are preparing for a potential restart if necessary.

— Solana Status (@SolanaStatus) September 14, 2021

Apparently, around 400,000 transactions per second were running through the network at its peak, and it overwhelmed the network. The transaction processing queues were flooded, which caused some nodes to go offline and the network to start forking. The forking then led to excessive memory consumption, and the validator community then voted to restart the entire blockchain.

The network was already down for around 24-hours before the network was able to be brought back online. The restart was announced with the following tweet:

The Solana validator community successfully completed a restart of Mainnet Beta after an upgrade to 1.6.25. Dapps, block explorers, and supporting systems will recover over the next several hours, at which point full functionality should be restored.

— Solana Status (@SolanaStatus) September 15, 2021

The increase in transactions was largely attributed to bots flooding the network through a Raydium IDO. These bots were flooding transactions through in the hope to gain some of the tokens that would be released on the Initial Dex Offering on the Raydium market maker, built on top of Solana. At its worse, SOL had spiked as low as 25% to hit the support at the 20-day MA before it started to recover. 

Despite the recent turbulence, SOL remains ranked in the 7th position as it currently holds a $46.93 billion market cap value.

Let us continue to take a look at the markets and see where they might be heading.

Solana price analysis

What has been going on?

Taking a look at the daily chart above, we can see that SOL started to rise during August inside an ascending price channel. The price channel allowed SOL to reach as high as $120 by the end of the month. 

As September started to trade, SOL exploded as it turned parabolic above the ascending price channel. It quickly would break $150 and would surge as high as $216 last Thursday. Unfortunately, it could not close a daily candle above $192, and the market rolled over from there and started to head lower.

Initially, SOL was holding support at $169 (.236 Fib Retracement), but the bears would eventually break beneath here yesterday during the technical difficulties. When the Solana Network went down, we could see that SOL spiked aggressively lower. It fell as low as $142, where it found support at a .382 Fib Retracement level and the 20-day MA.

By the end of the day, SOL recovered to be near the $160 level, where it currently trades. 

Solana price short-term prediction: Bullish

The creation of a new all-time high price has undoubtedly caused SOL to be bullish in the short term. The coin would now need to fall beneath $100 to turn neutral. It would have to continue further beneath $60 (100-day MA) to be in danger of turning bearish.

If the sellers do push beneath $160, the first support lies at $142 (20-day MA & .382 Fib Retracement). This is followed by support at the rising trend line, $120 (.5 Fib Retracement), $100, $96.35 (.618 Fib Retracement), $90 (50-day MA)< $82, and $60 (100-day MA).

Where is the resistance toward the upside?

On the other side, the first resistance is now located at $170. This is followed by $180, $185 (1.272 Fib Extension), $192, and $200. Beyond $200, additional resistance lies at $216, $220, $228 (1.618 Fib Extension), $242, and $250 (1.414 Fib Extension – purple).

What has been going on?

Solana is also in a similar boat against Bitcoin as it surged higher during August and September to reach as high as ₿0.00468 (1.414 Fib Extension) last week. It rolled over from there and started to head lower over the course of the week. 

Yesterday, during the network downtime, SOL spiked as low as the 20-day MA level around ₿0.00308. It rebounded from there by the end of the day to close the daily candle at ₿0.00333, which is support provided by a .236 Fib Retracement level. 

The buyers are now attempting to hold this support today.

Solana price short-term prediction: Bullish

The new ATH price has turned SOL bullish against BTC. The coin would now need to drop beneath ₿0.00241 (.5 Fib Retracement) to turn neutral in the short term and would have to continue further beneath ₿0.002 (.618 Fib Retracement) to turn bearish.

If the sellers do break the current support at ₿0.00333 (.236 Fib Retracement), the first support is expected at ₿0.00308 (20-day MA). This is followed by additional support at ₿0.003, ₿0.00282 (.382 Fib Retracement), ₿0.00241 (.5 Fib Retracement), and ₿0.002 (.618 Fib Retracement & 50-day MA).

Where is the resistance toward the upside?

On the other side, the first resistance lies at ₿0.0035. This is followed by resistance at ₿0.004, ₿0.00442 (1.618 Fib Extension – blue), and ₿0.00468 (1.414 Fib Extension – orange). 

Above the September highs, additional resistance is expected at ₿0.005, ₿0.00516 (1.618 Fib Extension – orange), ₿0.0055, and ₿0.00578 (1.272 Fib Extension – purple). Additional resistance lies at ₿0.006, ₿0.00635 (1.414 Fib Extension – purple), and ₿0.0065.

Keep up to date with the latest SOL price predictions here.

   

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