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Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Set to Break the 2nd-Longest Drop Streak

Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficultly is expected to rise this Saturday, after four consecutive drops, cutting into the growing profit margins of BTC miners.

Bitcoin mining difficulty, or the measure of how hard it is to compete for mining rewards, might go up around 5%, per the current estimations by the mining pool BTC.com.

This would bring it back up from the 13 T level, where it had dropped during the previous adjustment, to 14.41 T – still far from the all-time high of 25.05 T. Also, this would be the first adjustment up since China cracked down on crypto mining in May.

Nonetheless, this increase comes after four drops in a row, two of which were quite substantial: the historic drop of nearly 28%, and a drop of nearly 16%.

Notably, having more than two consecutive drops is not that common at all. Prior to this, there were only two such cases: three drops in late 2018, and eight in late 2011.

Per BitInfoCharts.com, hashrate, or the computational power of the network, has seen a smaller increase since the previous adjustment two weeks ago, going up from 101.15E to 104.39E (7-day simple moving average). This is nearly 43% lower than the all-time high recorded on May 14, and 24% higher that the yearly low hit on July 3.

Bitcoin mining profitability has also seen a jump since the last difficulty adjustment, going up 19% in two weeks.

Average hashrate (hash/s) per day vs. mining profitability USD/Day for 1 THash/s, 7-day simple moving average. Source: bitinfocharts.com

The mining difficulty of Bitcoin is adjusted around every two weeks (or more precisely, every 2016 blocks) to maintain the normal 10-minute block time. The 7-day simple moving average block time on July 29 was 9.38 minutes.

Meanwhile, according to ByteTree, in the past weeks, miners have continued holding more of their newly generated BTC, instead of spending it.

Source: terminal.bytetree.com, 12:56 UTC

At 13:47 UTC, BTC trades at USD 38,909 and is down by 2% in a day, trimming its weekly gains to 20%. The price is up by 8% in a month.

   

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